Dual Clutch Transmission and Continuous Variable Transmission Expected to Register Double Digit Growth Over the Next Five Years

Stratview Research | 2016-09-19


An automotive transmission system is a mechanism that delivers optimum torque to the drive train from the vehicle’s engine. It is one of the automotive systems that makes the vehicle more comfortable, safe, and convenient to drive. Transmission system includes gear box, clutch, accelerator, brake, and steering system. All vehicle, such as passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and medium & heavy duty commercial vehicles either fuelled by gasoline, diesel, or electricity require a transmission system.

Automotive transmission system has experienced a significant evolution in the technology over a period of time. There is a gradual shift in the adoption of transmission technology from the manual transmission to automatic manual transmission to automatic transmission system. Now the upcoming transmission technologies, such as Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT) and Continuous Variable Transmission (CVT) are gradually gaining industry acceptance in the key automotive markets. The upcoming technologies (DCT and CVT) improve fuel efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, and improve power requirements & vehicle performance.   

Automotive transmission systems are broadly segmented into the basis of its technology, such as Automatic Transmission, Manual Transmission, Automated Manual Transmission (AMT), Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT), Continuous Variable Transmission (CVT), and Electronic Variable Transmission (EVT).

The usage of automotive transmission technology differs from region to region. Major automakers in North America rely on the automatic transmission system whereas European automakers rely on the manual transmission system. In Asia-Pacific region, transmission technology dynamics differs amongst the countries. For example, China, the world’s largest automotive market, heavily rely on the manual transmission technology whereas Japan rely on the automatic transmission system.      

The major players in the automotive transmission market have been identified as ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Jatco Ltd., Getrag Corporate Group, Magna Powertrain, and Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd.

Drivers and Constraints:

Global automotive transmission system market is directly proportional with production of vehicles. Recovery of global economy, increase in the disposable income and increase in the population are the major factors driving the automotive production worldwide. Global medium & heavy vehicles and light vehicles production is expected to growth with 2.7% CAGR and 2.4% CAGR (2016-2021) over the next five years, respectively.

Another driver of the automotive transmission system market is the demand of fuel efficient, reduced carbon emission, and high powered vehicles. Increasing carbon emissions in the global environment led many countries to implement stringent regulations, such as CAFÉ standards. These regulations mandate automakers to curb carbon emissions and increase fuel efficiency on new vehicles sold. The upcoming transmission technologies DCT and VCT helps in improving vehicle fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions and help automakers to achieve the targets set by respective countries. The cost of these transmission technologies (CVT and DCT) is high. Automakers are looking for cost effective transmission technologies to justify the overall vehicle cost and maintain profitability.

Strategic Market Assessment:

The global automotive transmission market is consolidated as major manufactures, such as ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Jatco Ltd, BorgWarner, and Allison transmission occupy major pie of the market. Global automotive transmission system market offers good growth opportunity and is expected to grow with 5.5% CAGR in the next five years (2016-2021).

Manual transmission dominates in the global automotive transmission system market, driven by the higher preference in the major automotive markets, such as China, Europe, and India. CVT and DCT systems are expected to witness the fastest growth in the next five years because of the number of benefits offered by them, such as improved fuel efficiency, reduced carbon emission, improved power requirements and better comfort.     

Passenger car is expected to remain the largest vehicle type for automotive transmission system market during the forecast period. The high number of passenger vehicle production as compared to the light duty and medium & heavy duty commercial vehicles are the major reasons behind the overall dominance of the passenger car in the global automotive transmission system market.

Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the largest market for the automotive transmission systems during the forecast period. Increasing vehicle production in China and India, and sustainable vehicle production in Japan and Korea are the major drivers of the high demand of automotive transmission systems in the Asia-Pacific region. The growing demand of the fuel efficient, better comfort, and high performance vehicles in Asia-Pacific is pushing automakers to opt for the CVT and DCT technologies. Similar trend is also expected in the North American and European regions where CVT and DCT technologies will gain acceptance by replacing manual and automatic transmission systems.

Growth Opportunity:

The automotive transmission systems market is sustainable with good growth opportunity during the forecast period. There is good growth potential in the entire value chain of the automotive transmission system across the world but all the stakeholders need to formulate the right strategy to gain competitive edge and to win in the market space. The following are few high growth strategies industry stakeholders can adopt to gain competitive edge over others.

  • Develop Innovative Products, such as Hybrid Technology: Improvement in the fuel efficiency, reduction in the carbon emissions, and demand for excellent driving experience will continue the drive automakers to look for more efficient transmission system. Development of innovative transmission system will help companies gain market share. For Instance, the hybrid technology saves fuel during idle time by turning engine off when brakes are pressed and restart instantaneously when the brake is released or the accelerator is pressed.
  • Focus on Asia-Pacific Region: Asia-Pacific region will remain the growth engine of the global automotive transmission technology market. The continuous increase in the automotive production and increasing demand of the fuel efficient and high performance vehicle will drive the Asia-Pacific market during the forecast period.
  • Focus on DCT and CVT: DCT and CVT systems are expected to experience the fastest growth during the forecast period. Between DCT and CVT, DCT is expected to grow at a higher pace due to its advantages over other technologies, such as lower carbon emission, higher fuel efficiency, excellent driving experience, and preference in performance vehicles. Currently, only a few major transmission system manufacturers such as Getrag, ZF Friedrichshafen and BorgWarner have DCT system manufacturing capability. The higher growth is likely to attract other major players as well as new entrants in the DCT and CVT system market.


The government regulations, such as CAFÉ Standards, higher demand of fuel efficient and high powered vehicles will continue to provide good growth opportunity in the global automotive transmission systems market during the forecast period of 2016 to 2021.  

Transmission system technology addressing above industry concerns will gain more traction than other technologies. DCT and CVT are expected to gain market share by registering double digit growth during the forecast period. Both technologies enhance the driving experience, increase the fuel efficiency, and reduce the carbon emissions.  

Asia-Pacific region will remain the growth engine of the automotive transmission market in the next five years. Both light vehicles and medium & heavy duty commercial vehicles are expected to exhibit healthy growth opportunity in Asia-Pacific region, driven by mainly increasing vehicle production in China and India.

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